[SMM Steel Market Morning News] National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): National Real Estate Development Investment Fell 9.8% YoY in January-February, and the EU Plans to Propose Export Restrictions and Tariffs on European Steel Scrap and Metals in Q3 2025.

★Macro★

01 ★★★ 

National Bureau of Statistics: Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods Up 4.0% YoY in January-February; Industrial Production Above Designated Size Up 5.9% YoY

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 8,373.1 billion yuan in January-February, up 4.0% YoY. Among them, retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 7,683.8 billion yuan, up 4.8%.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that industrial production above designated size increased by 5.9% YoY in January-February. On a MoM basis, industrial production above designated size rose by 0.51% in February.

02 ★★★ 

National Bureau of Statistics: Real Estate Development Investment Down 9.8% YoY in January-FebruaryAccording to the National Bureau of Statistics, real estate development investment nationwide totaled 1,072 billion yuan in January-February, down 9.8% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024. Among this, residential investment was 805.6 billion yuan, down 9.2%, with the decline narrowing by 1.3 percentage points. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 107.46 million m², down 5.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 7.8 percentage points; among this, residential sales area fell by 3.4%, with the decline narrowing by 10.7 percentage points. Sales of newly built commercial housing amounted to 1,025.9 billion yuan, down 2.6%, with the decline narrowing by 14.5 percentage points; among this, residential sales fell by 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 17.2 percentage points. At the end of February, the area of commercial housing pending sale was 798.91 million m², up 5.1% YoY, including a 6.6% increase in residential pending sale area.

03 ★★★ 

National Bureau of Statistics: Urban Fixed Asset Investment Reached 5,261.9 Billion Yuan in January-February, Up 4.1% YoY

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) nationwide reached 5,261.9 billion yuan in January-February, up 4.1% YoY (calculated on a comparable basis), with the growth rate accelerating by 0.9 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024. Among this, private fixed asset investment was 2,671.7 billion yuan, remaining basically flat YoY. On a MoM basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.49% in February.

04 ★★ 

Central Bank: Researching New Structural Monetary Policy Tools to Enhance Low-Cost Funding Support for Key Consumption Areas

Che Shiyi, head of the Credit Market Department of the People's Bank of China, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on March 17 that the central bank will implement an appropriately loose monetary policy to create a favorable financial environment for expanding consumption. Based on domestic and overseas economic and financial conditions and financial market operations, the central bank will adjust and optimize policy intensity and pace as appropriate, comprehensively using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirements, relending, rediscounting, and open market operations to maintain ample liquidity. It is also researching the creation of new structural monetary policy tools to enhance low-cost funding support for key consumption areas.

★Industry and Downstream★

01 ★★★  

SMM Survey: Impact of Meetings Eased, Iron Ore Concentrates Production Rose Slightly

According to SMM data, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 56.9% last week, up 2.9 percentage points WoW. Iron ore concentrates production was 760,000 mt, up 39,000 mt WoW. Additionally, iron ore concentrates inventory decreased by 10,000 mt to 190,000 mt.
Last week, iron ore concentrates production showed a slight upward trend. After the conclusion of major meetings, some mines and beneficiation plants that had previously suspended operations resumed normal production, leading to a slight increase in iron ore concentrates production. The production increase was mainly concentrated in Hebei and Liaoning. This week, with the conclusion of the meetings, the overall production pace of mines and beneficiation plants is expected to strengthen. Coupled with the potential resumption of operations at mines and beneficiation plants previously suspended due to iron ore accidents, domestic iron ore concentrates production is expected to grow further in the short term. The production increase is likely to be concentrated in Shandong, Hebei, and Liaoning.

02 ★★★ 

EU Plans to Propose Export Restrictions and Tariffs on European Steel Scrap and Metals in Q3 2025

According to the EU Steel Action Plan draft, the EU plans to propose export restrictions and tariffs on European steel scrap and metals in Q3 2025. In Q4 2025, it plans to propose amendments to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), aiming to expand its scope to include downstream products intensive in steel and aluminum.

03 ★★★   

National Development and Reform Commission: First Proposal in Consumption Promotion Documents to Stabilize Stock and Real Estate Markets, Strengthening Consumer Confidence

Li Chunlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on March 17 that previous consumption policies mostly focused on the supply side, emphasizing demand creation through supply guidance. This time, the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" increases policy efforts on the demand side, focusing on promoting income growth and reducing burdens for residents. For example, it proposes promoting reasonable growth in wage income, including continuing the unemployment insurance job retention policy, supporting enterprises in stabilizing employment, and helping workers improve their skills. It also suggests scientifically and reasonably raising minimum wage standards, ensuring timely and steady adjustments. Additionally, the plan emphasizes stabilizing the stock and real estate markets for the first time in consumption promotion documents, proposing corresponding measures to strengthen consumer confidence and expectations.

04 ★★★  

CRIC Real Estate Research: Housing Prices in Major Cities Expected to Show More Positive Signals in H1

CRIC Real Estate Research predicts that in H1 2025, the sales area and value of commercial housing will accelerate bottoming out, with more major cities seeing YoY positive monthly residential transaction volumes. Thanks to measures to boost consumption and stabilize asset prices, housing prices in major cities are expected to show more positive signals, with the warmth of new housing price indices spreading faster to the second-hand housing market. In terms of investment and construction, driven by the phased tasks of destocking and market stabilization, the land market will continue to shrink in volume while improving in quality. Construction areas are also expected to adjust downward to scales more aligned with new housing sales. New construction and development investment will remain in a contraction adjustment cycle, but with the advancement of urban village renovation, YoY indicators are expected to see marginal improvement in H1.

05 ★★ 

Zhejiang Province: Deepening "Good Housing" Construction, Encouraging Local Optimization of Floor Area Ratio Calculations

The General Office of the People's Government of Zhejiang Province issued an implementation plan for the "Special Action to Boost and Expand Consumption." It mentions deepening the construction of "good housing," encouraging local optimization of floor area ratio calculations, and increasing the supply of improved housing as appropriate. It also promotes orderly advancement of ready-to-sell housing and the establishment of a new model for real estate development. Measures include supporting individuals in withdrawing housing provident funds to pay for down payments on newly built commercial housing, implementing housing transaction tax and fee preferential policies, and increasing credit support. It also supports the renovation and reconstruction of rural self-built houses and promotes integrated PV rooftops. Special bonds for land reserves will be increased, and local state-owned enterprises are encouraged to purchase completed inventory commercial housing at reasonable prices as needed. In 2025, 60,000 urban village renovation units will be implemented.

06 ★★  

Henan Province Adjusts Housing Provident Fund Policy, Loan Limits Increased by 20%

The Henan Provincial Housing Fund Management Center announced the "Renewal" loan policy, comprehensively optimizing and upgrading loan thresholds and limits. It mentions that large-sized housing is eligible for loans. Regardless of housing size, as long as other housing provident fund loan requirements are met, loans can be applied for normally. The first personal housing credit policy introduces "double first-time" benefits. Residents using provident fund loans for the first time or purchasing self-occupied housing for the first time can enjoy first-time provident fund loan rates. Loan limits have been increased by 20%. For self-occupied housing purchases in Zhengzhou urban areas, the maximum loan limit has been raised from 1 million yuan to 1.2 million yuan, and from 800,000 yuan to 1 million yuan in suburban counties. Regardless of whether it is the first or second home, whether both spouses or one contributes, or the family contribution balance, the maximum limit remains unaffected. Additionally, high-level talents can enjoy higher loan limits, with the maximum limit raised from 1.5 million yuan to 1.8 million yuan in Zhengzhou urban areas and to 1.5 million yuan in suburban counties.

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕[German Ministry of Economic Affairs: Global Economic Forecast Lowered Due to Trade Policy Uncertainty and Expected US Economic Growth Slowdown]The German Ministry of Economic Affairs stated that weak domestic and overseas demand and increased uncertainty will lead to continued economic weakness in early 2025. Plans discussed by the future ruling coalition may bring stable expectations. Due to trade policy uncertainty and the expected slowdown in US economic growth, the global economic forecast has been lowered.

⭕[Two Major Korean Shipbuilders Signed Orders for 15 New Ships of Two Types on the Same Day, Total Value Close to $3 Billion]Evergreen Marine Corporation from Taiwan, China, officially signed a contract with Hanwha Ocean for the construction of six 24,000 TEU LNG dual-fuel ultra-large container ships. According to Korean media, the final unit price for Hanwha Ocean was $267.3 million (388.1 billion won), with a total order value of approximately $1.6 billion (about 11.6 billion yuan). In addition to Hanwha Ocean, another Korean shipbuilder, Samsung Heavy Industries, secured a major tanker order on the same day. Greek shipowner Tsakos Energy Navigation (TEN) officially signed a contract with Samsung Heavy Industries in Athens for the construction of nine 158,000 DWT Suezmax shuttle tankers, with a total order value of approximately $1.32 billion (about 9.55 billion yuan) and a unit price of approximately $146.5 million.

⭕[National Development and Reform Commission: Promoting "AI + Consumption" to Accelerate the Development and Application of New Technologies and Products Such as Autonomous Driving and Smart Wearables]Li Chunlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that efforts will be made to promote "AI + consumption," accelerating the development and application of new technologies and products such as autonomous driving, smart wearables, ultra-high-definition video, brain-computer interfaces, robotics, and additive manufacturing, so that cutting-edge technological achievements benefit more consumers.

⭕[Ministry of Commerce: Organizing Pilot Reforms for Automotive Circulation and Consumption, Focusing on Cultivating New Growth Points in Automotive Consumption]Li Gang, Director of the Department of Market Operation and Consumption Promotion of the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on March 17 that pilot reforms for automotive circulation and consumption will be organized, actively supporting qualified regions to take the lead in promoting efficient circulation of used cars and developing the automotive aftermarket, focusing on cultivating new growth points in automotive consumption.

⭕[Zhejiang: Supporting Vehicle Replacement and Upgrades, Maximum Subsidy of 15,000 Yuan/Unit for NEVs and 13,000 Yuan/Unit for Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles]The General Office of the People's Government of Zhejiang Province issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost and Expand Consumption." It mentions supporting vehicle replacement and upgrades, with a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan/unit for NEVs and 13,000 yuan/unit for internal combustion engine vehicles. The plan also aims to increase the maximum proportion of automotive loans and optimize automotive financial service processes. In 2025, more than 20,000 new public NEV charging piles will be built, including over 10,000 in rural areas, and 1,000 km of rural roads will be newly constructed or upgraded.